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kenny schachter 2026 predictions van gogh private sale

Kenny Schachter offers his predictions for the art world in 2026, set against a backdrop of political chaos and rapid AI development. He forecasts only a marginal uptick in global art sales, which he estimates will exceed $57.5 billion, and warns that luxury goods—bags, watches, fossils—are increasingly encroaching on art fairs, auctions, and exhibitions. Schachter criticizes Sotheby's for blurring the lines between auction house, museum, and gallery, citing its traveling "Icon" show as a spectacle of price tags rather than art scholarship.

Why is the art market turning Gulf-wards?

The art market is shifting its focus toward the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, following a sharp decline in Chinese luxury goods sales (18–20% drop in 2024) and a 31% slump in Chinese art sales. Auction houses like Sotheby’s and Christie’s have established outposts in Saudi Arabia, with Sotheby’s first auction in Diriyah generating $17.3 million and attracting 35% new buyers. The UAE’s tax-haven status and lack of sanctions on Russians have drawn wealthy residents, while Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 campaign, led by Mohammed bin Salman, is pouring money into cultural projects such as AlUla, Art Week Riyadh, the Islamic Arts Biennale, and a new teamLab Borderless museum in Jeddah.